Optimization and techno-economic analysis of hybrid renewable systems in Nigeria

Abstract

Rising electricity demand, fossil fuel depletion, and environmental concerns highlight the need for sustainable rural electrification. The Elenjere community in Kwara State, Nigeria, depends on costly diesel generation and limited grid access, creating an urgent demand for reliable and affordable alternatives. This study designs and optimizes a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) for the community using hybrid optimization model for electric renewables (HOMER) Pro simulation. The proposed system combines photovoltaic (PV), wind turbines (WT), battery storage (BAT), inverter (INV), and a diesel generator (DG) as backup. Field data on load demand, solar radiation, and wind speed were used for realistic modeling. System performance was evaluated using levelized cost of energy (LCOE), net present cost (NPC), and system capital cost (SCC). Results show the PV/WT/BAT/INV/GEN configuration achieved the lowest LCOE of USD 0.455/kWh, an NPC of USD 2.98 million, and 86.2% renewable penetration, significantly reducing diesel use. Sensitivity analysis revealed that reducing battery costs and increasing PV capacity could lower the LCOE to USD 0.227–0.325/kWh. The study demonstrates how modest wind resources (4.19 m/s at 10 m) complement PV in low-wind regions while addressing inflation realism (25.5% discount rate, foreign exchange (FX) volatility). Future work will include dynamic control simulation and lifecycle analysis to enhance scalability and sustainability.