Beyond coal: optimization of hybrid floating PV–hydropower systems for Indonesia’s decarbonization

Abstract

Indonesia’s failure to meet the 23% renewable energy target, resulting in continued reliance on fossil fuels, necessitated a multi-criteria evaluation of hybrid energy systems. This study aimed to simultaneously minimize the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (decarbonization), and maximize the renewable energy penetration by integrating a coal-fired power plant (coal), hydroelectric power plant (hydro), and floating photovoltaic (FPV) power plant at sites in western Java (West Java and Banten provinces). Thirteen configurations were evaluated using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 climate data (1991-2020) and hybrid optimization of multiple energy resources professional (HOMER Pro) simulations. The optimal coal hydro-FPV-Li-Ion hybrid configuration achieved 91.1% renewable energy penetration, 94.5% decarbonization, avoided ~4.1 million kg CO2 annually, delivered an LCOE of $0.1201/kWh with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 7.6%, return on investment (ROI) of 5.9%, and payback period of 8.7 years. This configuration outperformed the pumped hydro storage alternative, demonstrating 38% lower capital expenditure (CAPEX) and 49% faster payback period, confirming its economic suitability for Indonesia’s fiscal constraints. These findings indicate that a hybrid energy system with battery storage technology is a technically and economically viable pathway toward Indonesia’s decarbonization agenda.