Agent Based Modeling on Dynamic Spreading Dengue Fever Epidemic

Abstract

Agent based model (ABM) is a computational model for simulation, behavioral representation and interaction of autonomous agents. The main problem definition related to how to make a dynamic model of dengue fever with consideration of their behavioral and interaction agent. This paper aims to develop interactive behavioral agents and related simulation models for such dynamic spreading dengue fever epidemic. This model construction consists of two agents, namely a human agent as a host and mosquito as a vector, where temperature and humidity are the environmental parameters. These environmental parameters deployed data and information from National Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics agency and supported by recent community health data of Bogor region. The verification stage evaluated model performance of two periods between January to June and between July to December 2015 showed the fitness of the model. During simulation stage where 100 humans agent and 10 mosquitoes agent were observed, indicating the decreasing of mosquito by 26.3% and the number of infected human decrease to 16% from the period of January until June to July until December 2015 respectively. These evaluation results showed that the agent based model results succeeded to follow a similar trend of decreasing pattern as actual data.